Not as much as you might think. Like I say, I think that the irrational fear causes the unjustified lack of confidence: I'm not so rational that my emotions have no effect at all on my beliefs.
I think what you're describing is what I said early on: "one can be over-confident or under-confident either because of bad information or irrational effects". I should add that it's possible to hold conflicting beliefs: one rational and another under the influence of fear, panic, or whatever else is going on.
In that case I think you can honestly say that you're confident of success, you expect it, you predict it, and so on. You can simultaneously feel that there's no chance, or feel non-specific dread, and not be confident at all. I'd say that's conflicting beliefs, rather than two different things only one of which is really "confidence". I guess (contrary to what I said before) one could be described as "having confidence" and the other as "feeling it".
If that doesn't correspond with your experience, then I'm not saying that you're "really" confident even though you feel that you aren't. Just that I don't think of the feeling itself as being 'confidencelessness', but as a fear which inhibits confidence. It's also possible for an assessment of low risk to inhibit fear (unless that's a hyperrational trait too...).
I think it's the same as the way that a prejudice can interfere with someone's ability to form rational beliefs based on their observations. It's pretty rare for someone to acknowledge a prejudice and still maintain it for long, but when it happens I think you probably get the same situation where you "know" something, but don't "feel it to be true".
no subject
I think what you're describing is what I said early on: "one can be over-confident or under-confident either because of bad information or irrational effects". I should add that it's possible to hold conflicting beliefs: one rational and another under the influence of fear, panic, or whatever else is going on.
In that case I think you can honestly say that you're confident of success, you expect it, you predict it, and so on. You can simultaneously feel that there's no chance, or feel non-specific dread, and not be confident at all. I'd say that's conflicting beliefs, rather than two different things only one of which is really "confidence". I guess (contrary to what I said before) one could be described as "having confidence" and the other as "feeling it".
If that doesn't correspond with your experience, then I'm not saying that you're "really" confident even though you feel that you aren't. Just that I don't think of the feeling itself as being 'confidencelessness', but as a fear which inhibits confidence. It's also possible for an assessment of low risk to inhibit fear (unless that's a hyperrational trait too...).
I think it's the same as the way that a prejudice can interfere with someone's ability to form rational beliefs based on their observations. It's pretty rare for someone to acknowledge a prejudice and still maintain it for long, but when it happens I think you probably get the same situation where you "know" something, but don't "feel it to be true".